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Approaches to methods of population projections: the Portuguese case
Maria José Carrilho > Demographic Studies Review > INE, 2005, p. 5 - 24

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Summary

This paper intends to summarise the different phases of the production of demographic projections and lists the decisions that must be made before that process. It also intends to compare the results of different projections with observed demographic trends, i.e., to monitor the data. The methods to use depend on a set of factors, as the available information, the purpose of the projections and technical skills. Face to the existing conditions, the one that better portray the volume and the structure of the future population should be selected. Users of this information should be aware of the uncertainty in extrapolation of the variables.


keywords: demographic projections, extrapolation, component methods, hypotheses, users


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