Summary
Accordingly with the EUROSTAT flash estimate, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU) GDP registered year-on-year growth rates of -4.6% and -4.4% in the 1st quarter of 2009, 3.2 and 3.0 percentage points (p.p.) less than in the previous quarter, respectively. In April, in the EA and the EU, the economic sentiment indicator interrupted the downward movement observed since mid 2007. In the same month, the EA consumer confidence indicator prolonged the negative evolution registered since August 2007 and, in the EU, interrupted the previous downward trend.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate and comparing with the same quarter of 2008, the GDP reduced 3.7% in the 1st quarter (-2.0% in the previous quarter) due to the contraction of exports, of investment and, in a smaller degree, of private consumption. The economic activity and the economic climate indicators diminished again in the 1st quarter of 2009. The private consumption indicator also decreased in the 1st quarter, due to the negative contribution of both components, non-durable and durable consumption, stronger in the second case. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator accentuated its negative evolution, driven by the decline registered in all components, but mainly in transport material. Concerning the international trade of goods, from the 4th to the 1st quarter of 2009, imports and exports year-on-year nominal growth rates registered pronounced reductions, from -6.4% to -28.1% and from -11.0% to -27.8%, respectively. In April, the economic climate indicator slightly diminished, after stabilising in March, presenting a slower downward pace than the observed since May 2008. The consumer confidence indicator recovered in April, interrupting the downward trend begun in late 2006, but remaining close to the minimum value of the series recorded in March.
In the 1st quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate was 8.9%, 1.3 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2008, attaining the maximum of the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -0.2% year-on-year change rate in the 4th quarter of 2008 to -1.8%, recording the lowest rate of the series started in 1999.
In April, the year-on-year monthly change rate of the Consumer Price Index was -0.5%, prolonging the downward movement started in July 2008 (when the normal VAT rate was reduced 1.0 p.p.). However, the core inflation index presented the same year-on-year growth rate than in the previous month, 0.9%. The differential between the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Portuguese HICP stabilised in April in 1.2 p.p..