Summary
In February, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU) economic sentiment and consumer confidence indicators maintained the previous downward movement, attaining the minimum value of the series started in March 1995.
In Portugal, the economic climate indicator, available until February, and the economic activity indicator, available until January, extended the strong downward movement observed since May 2008 and January 2008, respectively. The private consumption indicator decelerated in January, due to the negative evolution of the durable consumption component, while the non-durable consumption component slightly recovered. The GFCF indicator prolonged the negative evolution observed since the beginning of 2008, driven by the decline registered in January in all components, but mainly in transport material and construction. Concerning the international trade of goods, in January the year-on-year nominal growth rate of imports (partially reflecting the evolution of the oil prices) and of exports (partially reflecting the economic contraction in the costumer countries) registered significant reductions, shifting from -6.4% to -15.8% and from -11.0% to -19.7%, respectively. The GDP first estimate points to a year-on-year growth rate of -1.8% in the 4th quarter (0.4% in the previous quarter) mainly due to the strong reductions of exports and investment.
In February, inflation stabilised in 0.2% (year-on-year monthly change rate), interrupting the downward movement started in July. However, excluding unprocessed food and energy products, the Consumer Price Index continued to slowdown, registering in February a growth rate of 1.4% (1.8% in January). The differential between the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Portuguese HICP increased 0.1 p.p. in February to 1.1 p.p..