Summary
The GDP flash estimate published by EUROSTAT for the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU), pointed to year-on-year growth rates of -1.2% and -1.1% in the 4th quarter, 1.8 and 1.9 percentage points (p.p.) less than in the previous quarter, respectively. The GDP of the main costumer countries presented a year-on-year growth rate of -1.0% (+0.7% in the 3rd quarter). In January, in the Euro Area (EA), the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators extended the downward movement observed since August 2007.
In Portugal, the GDP flash estimate points to a year-on-year growth rate of -2.1% in the 4th quarter (+0.5% in the previous quarter) mainly due to the strong reduction of investment and exports. From the 3rd to the 4th quarter, the economic climate and the economic activity indicators diminished again. In January, the economic climate indicator recorded the minimum value of the series started in 1989. The private consumption indicator decelerated in the 4th quarter, due to the negative evolution of both components. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator accentuated its negative evolution, driven by the decline registered in all components, but mainly in construction. On the supply side, the Short Term Indicators information revealed declines in the year-on-year change rates in all sectors from the 3rd to the 4th quarter and in December when compared with the previous month. Concerning the international trade of goods, from the 3rd to the 4th quarter, imports (partially reflecting the evolution of the oil prices, shifting from a strong year-on-year growth rate in the 3rd quarter to a significant year-on-year decrease in the 4th quarter) and exports year-on-year nominal growth rates might have registered pronounced reductions, from 10.9% to -7.6% and from 5.2% to -11.8%, respectively.
In the 4th quarter, the unemployment rate was 7.8%, the same value as in the 4th quarter of 2007. Employment recorded a year-on-year growth rate of -0.2%, 0.1 p.p. less than in the previous quarter.
In January, year-on-year inflation was 0.2%, 0.6 p.p. less than in the previous month, attaining a new minimum value for the series started in 1992. The differential between the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Portuguese HICP increased 0.2 p.p. in December to 1.0 p.p..