Summary
In the Euro Area (EA), in the 4th quarter 2012, the GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of -0.9%
(-0.6% in the previous quarter). In January, the consumer confidence and the economic sentiment indicators for the EA recovered.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, the GDP in volume recorded a year-on-year change rate of -3.8% in the 4th quarter of 2012 (-3.5% in the previous quarter), and a change rate of -1.8% comparing with the previous quarter. This evolution was driven by the significant decline of the net external demand positive contribution, while the domestic demand presented a less intense negative contribution. The economic climate indicator slightly recovered in January, although remaining close to the lowest value of the series observed in the previous month. The economic activity indicator, available until December, registered a less intense decrease in the last three months. The private consumption and the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicators presented a slightly more pronounced year-on-year reduction in December. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports in nominal terms registered year-on-year change rates of 1.0% and -3.0% in December (-0.2% and -3.9% in the previous month), respectively. Without considering three months moving averages, the nominal exports of goods recorded a change rate of -3.2% in December (-0.1% in the previous month).
In the 4th quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate was 16.9% (15.8% in the previous quarter). The total employment and the total employees registered year-on-year change rates of -4.3% and -5.5% (-4.1% and -5.1% in the 3rd quarter), respectively.
The 12-month average rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.5% in January (2.8% in December). The 12-month average rate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also decreased to 2.5% in January (2.8% in the previous month). In January, the differential between the Portuguese HICP and the estimate of the EA HICP was 0.1 p.p. (0.3 p.p. in December).