Summary
According to the flash estimate compiled by the Eurostat, in the 3rd quarter of 2011, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of 1.4% in real terms (1.6% and 1.7% in the previous quarter, respectively). In October, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators diminished significantly in the EA and in the EU27. The raw materials and oil prices presented change rates of -8.3% and -2.5% in October comparing with the previous month (-3.0% and 6.6% in September), respectively.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a year-on-year change rate of -1.7% in volume in the 3rd quarter of 2011 (-1.0% in the previous quarter). The stronger reduction of the GDP was mainly driven by the deceleration of the exports of goods and services and by a more intense decrease of investment, with the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in construction presenting a strong negative contribution. On a monthly basis, the economic climate indicator decreased in October, maintaining the downward movement started in July 2010. The economic activity indicator, available until September, extended the descending path observed during the last year. The private consumption indicator decreased again in September, although stabilizing when compared with the previous month, and the GFCF indicator diminished more intensely in the same month. Concerning the international trade of goods, in nominal terms, exports and imports registered year-on-year change rates of 13.1% and 3.6% in September (13.5% and  4.5% in the previous month), respectively.
In the 3rd quarter of 2011, the unemployment rate was 12.4%, more 0.3 p.p. than in the previous quarter. The total employees shifted from a change rate of -0.2% in the 2nd quarter to 0.1% in the 3rd quarter.
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from 3.6% in September to 4.2% in October, mainly reflecting the increase of the VAT in electricity and natural gas. In the same month, excluding energy and unprocessed food products, this rate was 2.4% (2.5% in the previous month). The prices of the goods and of the services components presented year-on-year growth rates of 5.4% and 2.4% in October (4.2% and 2.5% in September), respectively. The differential between the year-on-year change rate of the Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and of the EA HICP was 1.0 p.p. in October, 0.5 p.p. more than in the previous month.