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Economic activity indicator accelerated in September and the economic climate indicator accelerated in September and October
Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity indicator accelerated in September and the economic climate indicator accelerated in September and October - October 2024
20 November 2024

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume registered a year-on-year rate of change of 0.9% in the third quarter of 2024 (0.6% in the second quarter) and a quarter-on-quarter rate of change of 0.4% (0.2% in the second quarter). In Portugal, real GDP increased by 1.9% in year-on-year terms in the third quarter of 2024 (1.6% in the previous quarter). Compared with the second quarter, there was a real 0.2% increase, same rate of change as in the previous quarter.

The short-term indicators for economic activity from the perspective of production, available for September, point to an acceleration in economic activity, with year-on-year increases in industry, in volume and in nominal terms, following the decreases of the previous months, and an acceleration in volume in construction and in nominal terms in services. From the expenditure side, the economic activity accelerated in year-on-year terms in September, with the investment indicator increasing, after the decrease observed in the previous month, while the private consumption indicator slowed down slightly. The economic climate indicator, which summarizes the balances of responses to questions relating to business surveys, increased in September and October, renewing its maximum value since April 2023.

The industrial production price index reached a year-on-year rate of change of 0.1% in October, decelerating from the increase of 1.0% in the previous month. The rate of change in the grouping of Energy was -4.4%, after being -3.4% in the preceding month. Excluding the energy component, this index registered a rate of change of 1.0% (1.9% in previous month), and the index for consumer goods recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% in October (3.2% in September).

The year-on-year rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.3% in October, 0.2 percentage points higher than in the previous month. The rate of change for energy products was -0.2% (-3.5% in September), mainly due to the combination of the monthly increase recorded in this aggregate (1.3%) with the base effect associated with the reduction recorded in October 2023 (-2.1%). The index for unprocessed food products recorded a rate of 2.1% (0.9% in September). 

On the external side, the implicit prices of exports and imports of goods, in September, registered year-on-year rates of change of -0.5% and –4.2%, respectively (0.2% and -3.9% in August).

According to the Labour Force Survey, in the third quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate stood at 6.1%, the same value as in the previous quarter and as in the third quarter of 2023. The number of unemployed increased by 1.3% in year-on-year terms (year-on-year rate of change of 0.8% in the previous quarter). Total employment increased by 0.8% compared to the previous quarter and 1.2% in year-on-year terms (year-on-year rate of change of 1.0% in the second quarter.


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