Monthly Economic Survey
GDP year-on-year change rate less negative in the 3rd quarter of 2009. Investment and Exports present less intense year-on-year reductions
- October 2009
18 November 2009
Accordingly with the EUROSTAT flash estimate, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of -4.1% and -4.3% in the 3rd quarter of 2009 (-4.8% and -4.9% in the 2nd quarter, respectively). In October, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators maintained the upward movement observed in the last months in the EA and in the EU27.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a year-on-year change rate of -2.4% in the 3rd quarter (-3.7% in the 2nd quarter). The less negative behaviour observed in the 3rd quarter was mainly due to an increase of the domestic demand contribution, reflecting a less intense year-on-year reduction of Investment, while the net external demand contribution remained positive and close to the observed in the previous quarter. The economic activity indicator increased significantly in the 3rd quarter of 2009, interrupting the strong downward movement started in the 1st quarter of 2008. The private consumption indicator presented a slightly less intense decrease in the 3rd quarter of 2009, due to the less negative contribution of the durable consumption, while the non-durable consumption decelerated. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator also decreased less intensely, reflecting the less negative evolution registered in all components, but mainly in transport material. Concerning the international trade of goods, in the 3rd quarter of 2009 imports and exports recorded less negative year-on-year nominal change rates than in the two previous quarters, although still significant (changing from -25.8% to -20.4% in the first case and from -24.4% to -17.5% in the second, from the 2nd to the 3rd quarter). Meanwhile, the economic climate indicator recovered in the last two quarters, after decreasing in the four previous, increasing again in October.
In the 3rd quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate was 9.8%, 2.1 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2008, attaining a new maximum for the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -2.9% year-on-year change rate in the 2nd quarter of 2009 to -3.4% in the 3rd (the lowest rate of the series started in 1999).
In October, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index was -1.5% (-1.6% in September and June, and the minimum change rate of the series started in 1992). The core inflation index registered a change rate of -0.4% (in the previous month this indicator presented the first negative rate of the series, -0.2%). In October, the prices of goods and of services maintained the different behaviours observed in the previous months, with the first recording a year-on-year change rate of -3.1% and the second a year-on-year growth of 1.2% (-3.5% and 1.4% in September, respectively). The differential between the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Portuguese HICP was 1.5 p.p in October, the same value as in September.