Monthly Economic Survey
GDP year-on-year change rate slightly less negative in the 2nd quarter of 2009
- July 2009
19 August 2009
Accordingly with the EUROSTAT flash estimate, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of -4.6% and -4.8% in the 2nd quarter of 2009, (-4.9% and -4.7% in the previous quarter, respectively). In July, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators recovered again.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate, the GDP reduced 3.7% in the 2nd quarter comparing with the same quarter of 2008 (-3.9% in the previous quarter) due to the contraction of exports, of investment and, in a smaller degree, of private consumption. The economic activity indicator diminished in the 2nd quarter of 2009, while the economic climate indicator recovered, after decreasing in the four previous quarters. The private consumption indicator decreased less intensely in the 2nd quarter of 2009, due to the positive contribution of the non-durable consumption and to the less negative contribution of the durable consumption. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator was less negative, driven by the evolution registered in all components, but mainly in transport material. Concerning the international trade of goods, imports and exports registered strong negative year-on-year nominal change rates in the 2nd quarter of 2009 (-27.6% and -25.2%, 2.6 p.p. less and 1.5 p.p. more than in the previous quarter, respectively). In July, the economic climate and the consumer confidence indicators recovered again.
In the 2nd quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate was 9.1%, 1.8 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2008, attaining a new maximum for the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -1.8% year-on-year change rate in the 1st quarter of 2009 to -2.9% (the lowest rate of the series started in 1999).
In July, the year-on-year monthly change rate of the Consumer Price Index stood at -1.5%, 0.1 p.p. more than in June. The core inflation index increased 0.5% (0.2 p.p. more than in the previous month). The prices of goods and of services continued to move in opposite directions, the first presenting a change rate of -3.7% in July (0.1 p.p. less than in the previous month) and the latter increasing 2.1% (0.2 p.p. more). The differential between the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Portuguese HICP was 0.7 p.p in July, diminishing 0.8 p.p. comparing with June.