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Signs of economic slowdown accumulate in a context of high inflation
Monthly Economic Survey
Signs of economic slowdown accumulate in a context of high inflation - October 2022
18 November 2022


In the Euro Area (EA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in the third quarter of 2022 (4.3% in the second quarter) and a quarter-on-quarter rate of change of 0.2% (0.8% in the previous quarter). 

Considering the information already available for November, the price of oil (Brent) registered an average value of 96.1 euros in the first fourteen days, which represents an increase of 1.4% compared to the average value of October.

In Portugal, GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year rate of change of 4.9% in the third quarter of 2022 (7.4% in the previous quarter). Compared to the second quarter of 2022, GDP increased by 0.4% in volume, 0.3 percentage points higher than in the previous quarter. 

The short-term indicators for economic activity from the perspective of production, available for September, point to a deceleration of economic activity. The economic activity indicator, which summarizes a set of quantitative indicators that reflects the evolution of the economy, decelerated intensely in September, after accelerating in August, resuming the deceleration profile observed between March and July and reaching the lowest rate of change since March 2021. In turn, the economic climate indicator, which summarizes the balances of responses to questions relating to business surveys decreased between August and October, reinforcing the downward movement started in March and reaching the minimum since April 2021.

The overall amount of national withdrawals, payment of services and purchases at automatic payment terminals carried out on the automatic teller machines of the Multibanco network presented a year-on-year rate of change 12.9% in October (14.2% in the previous month). 

The manufacturing price index recorded, in October, a year-on-year rate of change of 21.6%, decelerating for the third consecutive month from the highest growth of the current series observed in July (25.9%). Excluding the energy component, this index increased by 14.7% in year-on-year terms (15.6% in September). The index of consumption goods continued to accelerate, moving from a year-on year rate of change of 15.3%, in September, to 15.7% in October.

The year-on-year rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 10.1% in October 2022, the highest rate of change since May 1992, 0.8 percentage points higher than in the previous month.

According to the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate stood at 5.8% in the third quarter of 2022, 0.1 percentage points above the rate observed in the previous quarter (6.1% in the same period of the previous year). Total employment presented a year-on-year increase of 1.0% (1.9% in the second quarter). Total gross monthly earnings per employee (per job) increased by 4.0% in the third quarter. In real terms, considering the CPI rate of change, the total gross earnings decreased by 4.7%.

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