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Euro Area consumer confidence indicator reaches lowest value of the series. Cycle of price increases continues, with increasing losses in Portugal¿s terms of trade
Monthly Economic Survey
Euro Area consumer confidence indicator reaches lowest value of the series. Cycle of price increases continues, with increasing losses in Portugal¿s terms of trade - July 2022
18 August 2022

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2022 (5.4% in the first quarter) and a quarter-on-quarter rate of change of 0.6% (0.5% in the previous quarter). The EA consumer confidence indicator diminished to the lowest value of the series.

Considering the information already available for August, the price of oil (Brent) prolonged the downward movement verified in the previous month recording an average value of 100.7 euros per barrel in the first fifteen days of the month, which represents a 8.4% decrease from the average price registered in July.

In Portugal, GDP in volume slowed down to a year-on-year rate of change of 6.9% in the second quarter of 2022 (11.8% in the previous quarter), which partially reflects a base effect, since in the first quarter of 2021, several measures to mitigate the pandemic were in place that conditioned economic activity. Comparing with the previous quarter, there was a rate of change of -0.2% (growth of 2.5% in the first quarter). 

The manufacturing price index recorded in July a year-on-year rate of change of 26.1% (25.6% in the previous month), the highest growth of the current series. Excluding the energy component, this index increased by 15.6% in year-on-year terms decelerating 0.5 percentage points when compared to the previous month. In turn, the year-on-year rate of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 9.1% in July, reaching the maximum since November 1992. The year-on-year rate of change of the core inflation rate, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products, was 6.2% (6.0% in June), the highest since April 1994. The overall amount of national withdrawals, payment of services and purchases at automatic payment terminals carried out on the automatic teller machines of the Multibanco network presented a year-on-year rate of change 19.9% in July (16.6% in the previous month).In the external environment, the more intense growth in implicit prices of imports of goods when compared to exports (rates of change of 26.0% versus 18.6% in June, respectively) translates into losses in terms of trade, which have been worsening in the last months mostly due to prices of energy products, contributing to the deterioration of the external balance of goods.

According to the Labour Force Survey, in the second quarter of 2022, the unemployment rate stood at 5.7%, 0.2 percentage points less than the rate observed in the previous quarter (6.7% in the second quarter of 2021). Total employment remained unchanged compared to the previous quarter and increased by 1.9% in year-on-year terms. In the same quarter, gross monthly earnings by employee increased 3,1% when compared to the second quarter of 2021. In real terms, considering the Consumer Price Index, the total gross earnings decreased by 4.6%.


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