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Enterprises expect a 13.0% nominal decrease in exports of goods
Perspectives on Exports of Goods
2nd Forecast
Enterprises expect a 13.0% nominal decrease in exports of goods 2nd Forecast -
31 July 2020

Summary

The perspectives of the exporting enterprises of goods point to a nominal decrease of 13.0% in exports in 2020, corresponding to a downward revision of 15.1 percentage points (p.p.) in the 1st forecast made in November 2019. This revision results from the downward update of expectations for Intra-EU exports (-14.7 p.p., to -12.3%) and for Extra-EU exports (-16.1 p.p., to -15.0%).
Excluding Fuels and lubricants, enterprises are expecting a 11.8% decrease in 2020 (-13.5 p.p. in comparison to the 1st forecast).
From the enterprises that presented revisions in exports compared to the 1st forecast (56.7% of respondents), more than half (53.0%) reported that this revision was due entirely to the COVID-19 pandemic, corresponding to 98% of the downward revision from the 1st forecast.
14.2% of respondent enterprises have changed or intend to change their production and export strategy, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, namely by diversifying destination markets (31.7%), refocusing exports on EU markets (13.8%) and diversifying suppliers (11.0%).


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