Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity indicator decreases and economic climate indicator stabilizes - October 2018
20 November 2018

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), the year-on-year real growth rate of GDP was of 1.7% in the third quarter of 2018 (2.2% in the second quarter). In October, the consumer confidence and the economic sentiment indicators decreased in the EA. The prices of raw-materials and oil presented monthly growth rates of 1.6% and 4.3% (-2.5% and 7.9% in September, respectively).
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, real GDP registered a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1% in the third quarter of 2018 (2.4% in the previous quarter) and a quarterly growth rate of 0.3% (0.6% in the second quarter). The economic activity indicator, available until September, decreased and the economic climate indicator, already available for October, stabilized. The quantitative indicator of private consumption decelerated in September, reflecting a less intense positive contribution of both components, durable and non-durable consumption. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator also decelerated in September, due to the less intense positive contribution of the Construction and Machinery and Equipment components. In nominal terms, the exports and imports of goods presented year-on-year growth rates of 6.1% and 7.3% in September, respectively (8.8% and 13.1% in August). In September, considering the production perspective, the turnover indexes in services and in industry decelerated, and the industrial production index presented a reduction in year-on-year terms, while the production index in construction accelerated.
According to the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2018 was 6.7%, identical to the rate of the previous quarter and 1.8 p.p. lower than the rate of the corresponding quarter of 2017. Total employment presented a year-on-year growth rate of 2.1% in the third quarter, less 0.3 percentage points than in the previous quarter and active population increased 0.2% (0.1% in the previous quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.0% in October (1.4% in September), with a 0.8% growth rate in the goods component (0.9% in the previous month) and a 1.3% variation in the services component (2.2% in September).


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