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Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity indicator decreases and economic climate indicator increases - July 2018
20 August 2018

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), real GPD registered a year-on-year growth rate of 2.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2018 (2.5% in the previous quarter). In July, the consumer confidence indicator and the economic sentiment indicators decreased in the Euro Area (EA). In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of -5.5% and -0.3%, respectively (-2.9% and -2.2% in June).
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, GDP in volume presented a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2018 (2.1% in the 1st quarter). The economic activity indicator, available until June, decreased while the economic climate indicator, already available for July, increased. The quantitative indicator of private consumption decreased in June, due to the less intense positive contribution of the non-durable consumption component. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator accelerated, reflecting the more intense positive contribution of the construction component. In nominal terms, exports and imports recorded year-on-year change rates of 10.5% and 10.4% in June, respectively (5.2% and 5.0% in May). Considering the economic activity from the production perspective, the production index in industry decelerated in June, while the turnover indexes in industry and services and the production index in construction accelerated in the reference month.
In the 2nd quarter of 2018, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 to 74 years) was 6.7%, 1.2 p.p. below the rate of the previous quarter (8.8% in the same quarter of 2017). Total employment decelerated, from a rate of 3.2% in the 1st quarter to 2.4% in the reference quarter, while active population registered a slight year-on-year growth of 0.1% (0.7% in the previous quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.6% in July (1.5% in June), with a 1.1% change rate in the goods component (1.3% in the previous month) and 2.3% in the services component (1.9% in the previous month).


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