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Monthly Economic Survey
Producer and Consumer prices acelerate - June 2018
18 July 2018

Summary

In June, the consumer confidence indicator and the economic sentiment indicators decreased in the Euro Area (EA). In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of -2.9% and -2.2%, respectively (1.6% and 10.9% in May).
In Portugal, the economic activity indicator, available until May, decreased while the economic climate indicator, already available for June, increased. The quantitative indicator of private consumption increased in May, due to the positive contribution of both components. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator accelerated, reflecting the more intense positive contribution of the construction component. In nominal terms, exports and imports recorded year-on-year change rates of 5.2% and 4.1% in May, respectively (5.0% and 6.9% in April). In May, the production index in construction as well as the turnover index in services accelerated.
In May, the monthly estimate for the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 to 74 years) was 7.3% (0.1 p.p. above the definitive rate of the previous month), which compares with rates of 7.6% and 9.2% three months ago and one year ago, respectively. The estimate of employment (15 to 74 years), seasonally adjusted, registered a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% (2.6% in April) and a chain decrease of 0.2%.
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.5% in June (1.0% in May), with a 1.3% change rate in the goods component (0.6% in the previous month) and 1.9% in the services component (1.7% in the preceding month). The year-on-year change rate of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HIPC), whose structure differs from the CPI due to the inclusion of the expenditure of non-residents and the exclusion of the expenditure of residents abroad, increased 2.0% in June (1.4% in May). The Manufacturing industry production price index also accelerated in June to a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9%, 0.8 p.p. above the rate of the previous month.


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