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Monthly Economic Survey
The economic activity indicator decreased in April and May while the economic climate indicator, already available for June, stabilised - June 2016
19 July 2016

Summary

The consumer confidence and the economic sentiment indicators for the Euro Area (EA) recovered slightly in May and June. In the last month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively (2.7% and 12.7% in May).
In Portugal, the economic activity indicator decreased in April and May, after stabilizing in the previous month. The economic climate indicator stabilised in June, after having increased in the three previous months. The quantitative indicator of private consumption increased less intensely in May, reflecting the slowdown of the non-durable component. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator decreased, due to a less significant positive contribution of the transport material component and to a more intense negative contribution of the construction component. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports recorded year-on-year nominal change rates of -2.3% and -3.6% in May, respectively (-1.7% and -1.0% in April). Excluding fuels and lubricants, the exports and imports presented change rates of 0.8% and 3.3% in May, respectively (1.2% and 3.5% in April). Considering the economic activity from the production perspective, the industry turnover index registered negative change rates in nominal terms in the last months, which may mainly reflect price reductions, since the industrial production index, although decelerating, continued to show a positive growth in May and the respective price index maintained a negative change rate. The services turnover index decreased in nominal terms in May, more intensely than in the previous month. The construction and public works production index presented also a more pronounced negative change rate in May compared to April.
According to the monthly estimates of the Labour Force Survey, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 to 74 years old) was 11.6% in May, remaining unchanged from the final estimate for April. The employed population (15 to 74 years old), seasonally adjusted, decreased by 0.6% comparing with the previous month level and by 0.3% when compared with May 2015.
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.5% in June (0.3% in May), with a change rate of -0.1% in the goods component (-0.6% in the previous month) and 1.5% in the services component (1.8% in May).


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