Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity indicator stabilizes and economic climate indicator recovers again. Nominal exports diminish and imports increase
- July 2014
20 August 2014
In the Euro Area (EA), GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of 0.7% in the second quarter (0.9% in the previous quarter). In July, the consumer confidence indicator for the EA stabilized, while the economic sentiment indicator slightly increased.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, GDP recorded a volume year-on-year growth rate of 0.8% in the second quarter, after registering a change rate of 1.3% in the first quarter. Comparing with the previous quarter, the GDP change rate was 0.6% in the second quarter (-0.6% in first quarter). In Portugal, the economic activity indicator stabilized in June, for the second consecutive month. The information from Short-Term Statistics revealed a less negative evolution in industry, services and construction. The economic climate indicator, already available for July, recovered, attaining the highest value from the last six years. The private consumption indicator presented a slightly more intense year-on-year growth rate in June, reflecting the increase of the positive contribution of the non-durable consumption component and the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator stabilized. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports recorded year-on-year nominal change rates of -0.4% and 1.3% in June (-3.3% and -1.1% in the previous month), respectively. Without considering three months moving average, nominal exports and imports of goods shifted from -3.7% and 1.5% change rates in May to 8.0% and 9.6% in June, respectively.
In the second quarter, the unemployment rate was 13.9% (15.1% in the previous quarter). Total employment and total employees recorded year-on-year change rates of 2.0% and 4.4% (1.7% and 3.2% in the first quarter), respectively. Comparing with the same quarter of the previous year, the active population diminished 0.9% (-1.3% in the previous quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was -0.9% in July (-0.4% in May and June). In the last month, the goods component registered a -2.1% change rate (-1.1% in June) and the services component 0.8% (more 0.3 percentage points than in the previous month). The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HCPI) was 1.1 percentage points lower than the EA HICP in July (0.7 percentage points lower in June).