Monthly Economic Survey
Economic activity and economic climate indicators maintain upward path
- January 2014
19 February 2014
In the Euro Area (EA), GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter (-0.3% in the previous quarter). In January, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators for the EA maintained the upward path. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of -1.1% and -1.8% (1.0% and 1.2% in December), respectively.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, GDP recorded a volume year-on-year change rate of 1.6% in the fourth quarter, after presenting a reduction of 0.9% in the previous quarter. This evolution reflected mostly the positive contribution of domestic demand, mainly due to private consumption. The positive contribution of net external demand increased, led by the acceleration of Exports of Goods and Services. Comparing with the previous quarter, the GDP change rate was 0.5% in the fourth quarter (0.3% in the third quarter). The economic climate indicator maintained in January the upward movement observed since the beginning of 2013 and the economic activity indicator increased significantly in December. Information from Short-Term Statistics revealed a less intense year-on-year reduction of economic activity in services and in construction and public works and an acceleration in industry, in December. The private consumption indicator stabilized in December, reflecting the slight deceleration of non-durable consumption and the acceleration of durable consumption. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator recorded a less intense decrease. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports registered year-on-year nominal change rates of 6.4% and 3.3% in December (6.9% and 3.4% in the previous month), respectively.
In the fourth quarter, the unemployment rate was 15.3% (15.6% in the previous quarter). Total employment and total employees recorded year-on-year change rates of 0.7% and 1.9% (-2.2% and -2.5% in the third quarter), respectively. Comparing with the same quarter of the previous year, the active population diminished 1.2% (-2.4% in the previous quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.1% in January (0.2% in December), with rates of -0.4% in the goods and 0.8% in the services component (less 0.4 percentage points (p.p.) and more 0.4 p.p. than in the previous month, respectively).