Monthly Economic Survey
Private consumption and investment recover again in September. Nominal exports and imports accelerate
- October 2013
19 November 2013
In the Euro Area (EA), the GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of -0.4% in the third quarter 2013
(-0.6% in the previous quarter). In October, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators for the EA recovered. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of -0.1% and -4.3% (-0.3% and 0.0% in September), respectively.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a volume year-on-year change rate of -1.0% in the third quarter (-2.0% in the previous quarter) and a change rate of 0.2% comparing with the previous quarter (1.1% in the second quarter). This evolution reflected the less negative contribution of the domestic demand, determined mainly by the less intense decline in private consumption, and the decrease of the contribution of net external demand, mostly due to the acceleration of Imports of Goods and Services. The economic climate indicator maintained in October the upward movement observed since the beginning of the year, after attaining the minimum of the series in December. The economic activity indicator accelerated in September, registering the maximum since May 2011. Information from Short-Term Statistics revealed less intense year-on-year reductions in services and in construction and public works, while in industry was registered an increase in September. The private consumption indicator recovered in September, mainly due to the more significant positive contribution of the non-durable consumption component. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator recorded a less intense year-on-year decrease, reflecting the evolution of the machinery and equipment and the construction components. Concerning the international trade of goods, in nominal terms, exports and imports accelerated, registering year-on-year change rates of 5.8% and 3.6% in September (2.2% and 3.1% in the previous month), respectively.
In the third quarter, the unemployment rate was 15.6% (16.4% in the previous quarter). The total employment and the total employees recorded year-on-year change rates of -2.2% and -2.5% (-3.9% and -4.0% in the second quarter), respectively. Comparing with the same quarter of the previous year, the active population diminished 2.4% (-2.2% in the second quarter).
The 12-month average rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.6% in October (0.8% in September). The 12 month average rate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decreased to 0.8% (0.9% in the previous month). In October, the differential between the Portuguese HICP and the EA HICP stabilized in -0.8 p.p. (-0.7 p.p. in August).