Monthly Economic Survey
Private consumption and investment diminish less intensely in June.
Nominal exports accelerate and imports increase
- July 2013
20 August 2013
In the Euro Area (EA), the GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of -0.7% in the 2nd quarter 2013 (-1.1% in the previous quarter). In July, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators for the EA recovered. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of 6.9% and 5.7% (-10.3% and -1.2% in June), respectively.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a volume year-on-year change rate of -2.0% in the 2nd quarter (-4.1% in the previous quarter) and a change rate of 1.1% comparing with the previous quarter (-0.4% in the 1st quarter). This evolution was mainly driven by the less pronounced decrease of Investment and by the significant acceleration of Exports of Goods and Services, partially due to the calendar effect associated to the Easter celebration. The economic climate indicator maintained in July the upward movement observed since the beginning of the year, after attaining the minimum of the series in December. The economic activity indicator, available until June, registered a less intense decrease comparing with the previous month. The private consumption indicator presented a less pronounced year-on-year reduction in June, due to the lower negative contribution of both components, non-durable and durable consumption, mainly the latter. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator recorded also a less intense year-on-year decrease in June, reflecting the evolution of all components, especially the less negative contribution of the construction component. Concerning the international trade of goods, in nominal terms, exports and imports registered year-on-year change rates of 6.3% and 2.1% in June (5.3% and -1.5% in the previous month), respectively. However, without using three month moving averages, nominal exports of goods diminished 1.2% in June, comparing with the same month of the previous year (change rate of 5.1% in May).
In the 2nd quarter 2013, the unemployment rate was 16.4% (17.7% in the previous quarter). The total employment and the total employees recorded year-on-year change rates of -3.9% and -4.0% (-4.9 in the 1st quarter, in both cases), respectively. The employment reduction continued to overcome the increase registered in unemployment, while the active population presented a year-on-year change rate of -2.2% (-1.8% in the previous quarter).
The 12-month average rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.3% in July (1.4% in June). The 12-month average rate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decreased to 1.4% (1.6% in the previous month). In July, the differential between the Portuguese HICP and the EA HICP was -0.6 p.p. (-0.4 p.p. between April and June).