Monthly Economic Survey
Private consumption and investment diminish more intensely in September. Nominal exports decelerate and imports decrease more significantly
- October 2012
20 November 2012
In the Euro Area (EA), the GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of -0.6% in the 3rd quarter of 2012 (-0.4% in the previous quarter). In October, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators recorded a new reduction. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of -3.0% and
-1.9% (1.8% and -4.0% in September), respectively.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate, the GDP in volume registered a year-on-year change rate of -3.4% in the 3rd quarter of 2012 (-3.2% in the previous quarter) and a change rate of -0.8% comparing with the previous quarter. The GDP evolution in the reference quarter reflected a significant reduction of the positive contribution of the net external demand. The economic climate indicator decreased in September and October, interrupting the previous tenuous ascending path. The economic activity indicator, available until September, registered a slightly stronger decrease in the two last months, interrupting the evolution observed in July. The private consumption indicator presented a more pronounced year-on-year reduction in September, reflecting the stronger negative contribution of the non-durable consumption component. The Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) recorded a slightly stronger decrease in September due to the more significant negative evolution of the construction component. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports in nominal terms registered year-on-year change rates of 4.5% and
-4.2% in September (10.6% and -2.4% in the previous month), respectively.
In the 3rd quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate was 15.8% (more 0.8 p.p. than in the previous quarter). The total employment and the total employees registered year-on-year change rates of -4.1% and -5.1%, respectively (-4.2% and -5.0% in the 2nd quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shifted from 2.9% in September to 2.1% in October. Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the CPI stabilized, recording a year-on-year growth rate of 1.1% in September and October, less 0.3 p.p. than in August. The differential between the year-on-year change rates of the Portuguese and the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was -0.4 p.p. in October (0.3 p.p. in September).