Monthly Economic Survey
Private consumption maintained reduction and investment diminished more intensely in June. Nominal exports accelerated slightly and imports reduced less significantly
- July 2012
20 August 2012
In the Euro Area (EA), the GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of -0.4% in the 2nd quarter of 2012 (nil change rate in the 1st quarter). In July, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators decreased. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of 7.7% and 9.9% (-4.2% and -12.0% in June), respectively.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate, the GDP in volume recorded a year-on-year change rate of -3.3% in the 2nd quarter of 2012 (-2.3% in the previous quarter) and a change rate of -1.2% comparing with the previous quarter. The more intense year-on-year reduction of the GDP was driven by a more negative contribution of domestic demand. The economic climate indicator, available until July, stabilized, suspending the upward movement started in March. The economic activity indicator increased tenuously in June, interrupting the intense descending path observed since September 2010. The private consumption indicator presented a strong year-on-year reduction in June, although stabilizing comparing with the previous month. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) recorded a slightly stronger decrease, reflecting the negative evolution of the construction component. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports in nominal terms registered year-on-year change rates of 6.8% and
-8.3% in June (6.6% and -10.0% in the previous month), respectively.
In the 2nd quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate was 15.0% (more 0.1 p.p. than in the previous quarter). The total employees shifted from a change rate of -4.0% in the 1st quarter to -5.0% in the 2nd quarter, while total employment diminished 4.2% in the last two quarters.
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.8% in July (2.7% in May and June). Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the CPI recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3% in July (1.5% in the previous month). The differential between the year-on-year change rates of the Portuguese and the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was 0.4 p.p., more 0.1 p.p. than in the last three months.