Summary
According to the flash estimate compiled by the Eurostat, in the 2nd quarter of 2011, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of 1.7% in real terms (2.5% in the previous quarter). In July, the economic sentiment indicator diminished and the consumer confidence indicator slightly increased in the EA and in the EU27. Raw materials and oil prices continued to register strong year-on-year growth rates in July, although decelerating when compared to June in the first case.
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a year-on-year change rate of -0.9% in volume in the 2nd quarter of 2011 (-0.6% in the 1st quarter). This evolution might reflect a strong decrease of the private consumption, and mainly due to the durable goods component, and investment, with the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) in construction diminishing strongly. Monthly, the economic climate indicator decreased in July, maintaining the downward movement started in October 2010.The private consumption indicator decreased again in June, although stabilising when compared with the previous month, and the investment indicator also continued to diminish. Concerning the international trade of goods, in nominal terms, exports maintained a strong year-on-year growth rate (17.4% in June and 17.1% in the previous month), while imports shifted from a year-on-year change rate of 11.9% in May to 1.9% in June, partially reflecting the import of military equipment in June 2010.
In the 2nd quarter of 2011, the unemployment rate was 12.1%, less 0.3 p.p. than in the previous quarter, in part due to seasonal effects. The total employees shifted from a change rate of -0.7% in the 1st quarter of 2011 to -0.2% in the 2nd quarter.
In July, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.2% (3.4% in June). Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the year-on-year change rate was 2.1% (2.3% in the previous month). The prices of the goods and of the services components presented year-on-year growth rates of 3.6% and 2.5% in July (3.9% and 2.6% in June), respectively. The differential between the change rate of the Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and that of the EA HICP diminished 0.1 p.p. in July, to 0.5 p.p..