Summary
In December, the consumer confidence indicator stabilized in the Euro Area (EA) and decreased in the European Union (EU27), suspending the previous upward paths. In the same month, the oil price continued to register a strong year-on-year growth rate.
In Portugal, the economic climate indicator diminished between October and December, more intensely in the last month, after stabilizing in the highest value since September 2008. The economic activity indicator decelerated between September and November, interrupting the upward path observed since August 2009. In November, the private consumption indicator also decelerated, maintaining the downward movement of the five previous months, led by the evolution of the non-durable consumption component. The GFCF indicator presented a slightly stronger reduction in November, driven by the negative evolution of the construction component. Concerning the international trade of goods in nominal terms, imports and exports recorded less intense year-on-year growth rates, shifting from 7.9% and 15.1% in October to 4.6% and 12.8% in November, respectively. However, in monthly values, without three months moving averages, the exports recorded a year-on-year change rate of 13.9% in November, 4.5 p.p. higher than in the previous month.
In 2010, the average change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 1.4% (-0.8% in 2009). Excluding energy and unprocessed food products (core inflation indicator), the annual average change rate remained almost unchanged (0.3% in 2010 and 0.4% in 2009). In December, the year-on-year change rate of the CPI was 2.5%, 0.2 p.p. higher than in the two previous months, while the core inflation indicator was 0.9%, 0.2 p.p. less than in November. In December, the prices of the goods and of the services components presented year-on-year growth rates of 3.4% and 1.2% (3.0% and 1.2% in November), respectively. The differential between the Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the EA HICP decreased 0.1 p.p. in December, to 0.2 p.p..