Summary
Accordingly with the flash estimates compiled by the EUROSTAT, in the 3rd quarter of 2010, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of 1.9% and 2.1% (1.9% and 2.0% in the previous quarter, respectively). In October, the consumer confidence indicator increased in the EA and in the EU27, maintaining the previous upward paths. In the same month, the raw materials and the oil prices continued to register strong year-on-year growth rates, decelerating when comparing with September.
In Portugal, the GDP flash estimate points to a year-on-year change rate of 1.5% in volume in the 3rd quarter of 2010, 0.1 p.p. higher than in the previous quarter, reflecting the increase of the net external demand contribution, while the contribution of the internal demand registered a strong decrease. In the 3rd quarter, the economic activity indicator maintained the upward movement observed in the four previous quarters. The private consumption indicator decelerated in the 3rd quarter of 2010, led by the negative contribution of both components, durable and non-durable consumption, stronger in the first case. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator decreased more intensely, driven by the negative evolution of the transport material and the machines and equipments components. Concerning the international trade of goods, in the 3rd quarter of 2010, imports and exports recorded year-on-year nominal growth rates of 4.0% and 14.6% respectively (18.7% and 17.3% in the 2nd quarter). The economic climate indicator stabilized in the 3rd quarter and slightly decreased in October.
In the 3rd quarter of 2010, the unemployment rate was 10.9%, 1.1 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2009 and 0.3 p.p. more than in the previous quarter, attaining a new maximum for the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -1.7% year-on-year change rate in the 2nd quarter of 2010 to -1.1%.
In October, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.3%, 0.4 p.p. higher than the observed in the two previous months. Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the year-on-year change rate was 0.9%, 0.3 p.p. more than in September. In October, the prices of the goods and of the services components presented year-on-year growth rates of 3.2% and 1.1% (2.6% and 1.1% in September, respectively). The differential between the Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the EA HICP increased 0.2 p.p. in October, to 0.4 p.p..