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Business investment expected to decrease by 8.9% in nominal terms in 2020
Investment survey
Business investment expected to decrease by 8.9% in nominal terms in 2020 - 1st Semi-annual 2020
09 July 2020


According with the opinions expressed in the April 2020 Investment Survey (with an inquiring period between the 1st April 2020 and the 25th June 2020), the entrepreneurial investment is expected to present a nominal decrease of 8.9% in 2020, which compares with the original estimate of a 3.6% increase in the October 2019 survey regarding investment intentions for 2020. This change reflects the COVID-19 pandemic impact on economic activity and businesses expectations. This survey also points to an increase in investment of 4.3% in 2019, which represents an upwards revision comparing with the perspectives revealed in the previous survey (growth rate of 3.8%).
For 2020 the survey results point to negative change rates of the business GFCF in eight of the thirteen sections. The sections with the most relevant negative contributions are Manufacturing (-6.0 p.p. with a change rate of -21.5%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (-3.0 p.p. with a change rate of -18.2%).
On the other hand, the Transportation and Storage and the Financial and Insurance Activities sections registered the most significant positive contributions to the change rate of total investment in 2020 (3.1 p.p. and 0.7 p.p., respectively), corresponding to expected increases of 39.6% and 9.8%, in the same order. 
Regarding the main limitative factor for business investment identified in the survey, for 2019 and 2020, was the deterioration of sales perspectives, followed by the uncertainty about investment profitability in 2019 and by other limiting factors in 2020. Between 2019 and 2020 the relative weight of the deterioration of sales perspectives is expected to increase, while the relative weight of the shortage of qualified labour force will decrease.
Despite the circumstances determined by the pandemic COVID-19, Statistics Portugal will try to maintain the statistical production and release calendar, although some adjustments might occur associated with the impact of the pandemic in obtaining primary information. For this reason, Statistics Portugal asks for the best collaboration by firms, households and public entities in answering to Statistics Portugal‘s requests to obtain information, using Internet and telephone as alternative channels to face-to-face contacts. The quality of official statistics, particularly its ability to identify the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, depends crucially on this collaboration that Statistics Portugal is grateful for in advance.

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