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Deceleration of the economic activity
Monthly Economic Survey
Deceleration of the economic activity - October 2015
18 November 2015

Summary

In the Euro Area (EA), GDP in real terms registered a year-on-year change rate of 1.6% in the third quarter of 2015 (1.5% in the previous quarter). In October, the consumer confidence indicator slightly decreased in the EA, while the economic sentiment indicator increased. In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively (-2.8% and 1.6% in September).
In Portugal, according to the flash estimate, GDP recorded a volume year-on-year change rate of 1.4% in the third quarter of 2015 (1.6% in the second quarter). Comparing with the previous quarter, the GDP presented a nil change rate in the third quarter (0.5% in the previous quarter). The economic activity indicator, available for September, and the economic climate indicator, already available for October, diminished. In September, the Short-Term Statistics revealed a deceleration of the activity in industry and in some sectors of services and a decrease in construction and public works. The private consumption indicator presented a less intense year-on-year growth rate in September, reflecting the behaviour of both components, mainly the non-durable consumption component, while the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator increased. Concerning the international trade of goods, exports and imports recorded year-on-year nominal change rates of 3.2% and -0.3% in September, respectively (5.5% and 2.4% in August).
In the third quarter of 2015, the unemployment rate was 11.9%, similar to the rate observed in the previous quarter and 1.2 percentage points less compared with the third quarter of 2014. Total employment recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 0.2% (1.5% in the second quarter) and the active population diminished 1.1% (change rate of -0.8% in the previous quarter).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.6% in October (0.9% in the previous month), with a nil change rate in the goods component (0.3% in the two previous months) and 1.6% in the services component (1.7% in September).


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