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COVID-19: a territorial view on demographic context and territorial expression of the pandemic - Data until February 10
Context indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal
COVID-19: a territorial view on demographic context and territorial expression of the pandemic - Data until February 10
12 February 2021

Summary

• On 10 February, there were 29,511 new cases in the last 7 days, corresponding to a daily average of 4,216 new cases and the lowest number since 31 December 2020. Since 28 January, there has been a progressive decrease in the number of new confirmed cases in the past 7 days. The 14-day COVID-19 incidence rate was 903, corresponding to the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population in the past 14 days. This rate had reached a maximum on 29 January (1,667).
• At territorial level, the high number of deaths in the Metropolitan Area of Lisboa and the Alentejo should be highlighted, which, between 4 and 31 January, was 1.8 times higher than in the corresponding reference period, the highest values of the weekly series. In 59 municipalities the number of deaths was more than double that recorded in the corresponding reference period: two weeks earlier (21 December to 17 January), there were 17 municipalities.
• On 2 February 2021, the date of the last update of data at municipality level, the national 14-day cumulative incidence rate of COVID-19 (1,548) was surpassed by AML (2,164) and Centro (1,559) - new cases registered in these two regions represented almost 2/3 (61%) of the total. Compared to 26 January, there was an increase in the 14-day cumulative incidence rate only in AML and in the Região Autónoma da Madeira.
• On 2 February 2021, 219 (71%) Portuguese municipalities were at extremely high risk (76% on 26 January), of which 125 reported more than 1,500 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Compared to the previous week (26 January), 204 municipalities recorded a reduction in the cumulative incidence rate and 103 municipalities showed an increase, a group that includes all municipalities of the AML.
• The combined analysis of the location coefficient and the 14-day cumulative incidence rate made it possible to distinguish differentiated phases in the evolution of the pandemic [Figure 9], highlighting the positive dynamics recorded in the period from 25 November to 27 December: reduction of the 14-day cumulative incidence rate and reduction of the territorial concentration of new cases (last 14 days). From 27 December to 26 January, there was an exponential growth in the incidence rate and a relative stabilization of the territorial concentration of new cases. In recent weeks, since January 26, the results already suggest a tendency for an increase in the territorial concentration, and also on February 2 there was a reduction in the incidence rate, compared to the previous week.


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