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Net migration in the Alentejo Region from 1991 to 2001 and its effects in population change
Maria Filomena Mendes > Demographic Studies Review p. 5 - 29

Summary

In spite of the deepening of the negative balance between births and deaths of the Alentejo Region´s population in the decade of 80 of the last century, the 1991 and 2001 census data evidenced a positive net migration. The goal of the current study was to evaluate the effect of the higher immigration level (than the emigration one) on the recent population evolution and to forecast the demographic future of the Region if the positive net migration
remains positive.
The migration analysis is always a difficult task due to the lack of demographic data or to the gaps in those data. This is particularly true for regional studies which require precise data concerning internal and international migration. Indirect methods were used in the estimation of net migration and in the evaluation of the immigration contribute for the observed population growth.
This essay intends to show the impact the migratory change would have in the Region´s population structure, that is, if the invariability of a positive net migration, with the same structure by age and sex, would or would not be
demographically positive for the Region. The results demonstrate that the distribution by ages of net migration was negative to the demography of the Region. Considering constant the observed migratory picture, which could attenuate the population declining rate, the projections for the next 20 years suggest that, with same migration patterns, the total population would become older and the population in the potentially active age would decrease.

key words: net migration, population change, Region of Alentejo, population projections.


Study - complete version
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