Demographic ageing in Portugal continues to worsen, stabilisation expected only after 2060
Projections of resident population in Portugal
Demographic ageing in Portugal continues to worsen, stabilisation expected only after 2060 - 2025
30 September 2025

Summary

Between 2024 and 2100, according to the projected central scenario:

Portugal’s population will decline, from the current 10.7 million to 8.3 million people.

The number of young people will decrease from 1.4 to around 1.0 million.

The number of elderly people will increase from 2.6 to 3.1 million.

The ageing index in Portugal will increase gradually until 2060, when it will tend to stabilise.

The working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will decrease from 6.8 to 4.2 million people.

The old-age dependency ratio (the ratio of persons aged 65 or over to those aged 15 to 64) is expected to rise sharply due to both a shrinking working-age population and a growing elderly population. This ratio is projected to increase from 39 to 73 elderly persons per 100 working-age persons between 2024 and 2100.

The young-age dependency ratio (the ratio of persons aged 0 to 14 to those aged 15 to 64) is expected to remain relatively stable, increasing slightly from 20 to 23 young people per 100 working-age persons between 2024 and 2100.


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