Summary
Accordingly with the flash estimate compiled by the Eurostat, in the 4th quarter of 2010, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of 2.0% and 2.1% in real terms (1.9% and 2.2% in the previous quarter, respectively). In January, the consumer confidence indicator diminished in the EA and in the EU27. In the same month, comparatively to the previous year, the oil price and the raw materials prices continued to increase sharply.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a year-on-year change rate of 1.2% in volume in the 4th quarter of 2010 (1.3% in the 3rd quarter). The contribution of Exports of Goods and Services for the GDP year on year change rate was slightly lower than the observed in the previous quarter and the private consumption decelerated. The economic activity indicator decreased in the 4th quarter of 2010, suspending the previous positive path. However, in December this indicator stabilized. The private consumption indicator slightly decelerated in the 4th quarter, due to the negative contribution of the non-durable consumption component, while it accelerated in December. In the same quarter, the GFCF indicator presented a less intense reduction, driven by the positive evolution of the transport material and the machines and equipments components. In December, this indicator diminished less significantly comparing to November. Concerning the international trade of goods, in the 4th quarter imports and exports recorded year-on-year nominal growth rates of 10.3% and 15.8% (5.2% and 15.1% in the 3rd quarter), respectively. Meanwhile, the economic climate indicator decreased in the 4th quarter of 2010 and in January.
In the 4th quarter of 2010, the unemployment rate was 11.1%, 1.0 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2009, attaining a new maximum for the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -1.1% year-on-year change rate in the 3rd quarter of 2010 to -1.5% in the 4th quarter.
In January, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.6%, 1.1 p.p. higher than the observed in the previous month. Excluding energy and unprocessed food products, the year-on-year change rate was 2.1%, 1.2 p.p. more than in December. In January, the prices of the goods and of the services components presented year-on-year growth rates of 4.3% and 2.5% (3.4% and 1.2% in the previous month), respectively. The differential between the Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the EA HICP increased 1.0 p.p. in January, to 1.2 p.p..