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Private consumption and GFCF indicators increased in November
Monthly Economic Survey
Private consumption and GFCF indicators increased in November - December 2016
18 January 2017

Summary

In December, the consumer confidence and the economic sentiment indicators recovered in the Euro Area (EA). In the same month, the raw materials and oil prices presented monthly change rates of 0.8% and 22.0%, respectively (3.4% and -7.8% in November).
In Portugal, the economic activity indicator, available for November, and the economic climate indicator, already available for December, stabilized. The quantitative indicator of private consumption presented a more intense year-on-year growth rate in November due to the higher contribution of the non-durable consumption component. In the same month, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) indicator increased, reflecting the behaviour of the transport material component, which showed a nil contribution after a negative one in October, and the construction component, that presented a less intense negative contribution. Concerning the international trade of goods, in nominal terms, exports and imports increased by 3.5% and 2.8% in November, respectively (2.4% and 3.0% in October). In November, the industry turnover index presented a more intense positive change rate in nominal terms, while the industrial production index stabilized and the respective price index registered a less intense reduction. The services turnover index accelerated in November and the construction and public works production index showed a less pronounced reduction.
According with the provisional monthly estimates of Labour Force Survey, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 to 74 years old) was 10.5% in November (0.1 percentage points below the definitive rate observed in October), which compares with 10.9% and 12,3% observed three months and one year earlier, respectively. The estimate for the employed population (15 to 74 years old), seasonally adjusted, showed an increase of 1.7% comparing with November 2015 and 0.1% decrease comparing with the previous month.
In 2016, the annual average rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.6% (0.5% in 2015). The annual average rate of the Portuguese Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in 2016 was 0.4 percentage points higher than the EA HICP average rate (in 2015 this difference was 0.5 percentage points).
The year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.9% in December (0.6% in November), with a change rate of 0.6% in the goods component (0.1% between September and November), mainly reflecting the acceleration in the prices of fuels, and 1.3% in the services component (same rate as in November).


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