SYNTHESIS INE@COVID-19, 14-apr-2020

www.ine.pt page 05/08 Communication Unit | tel: +351 21 842 61 00 | sci@ine.pt April . 14 . 2020 For more information see: (8 April 2020) National accounts, Symmetric input-output table 0.76 € 0.90 € 0.63 € 0.56 € 0.24 € 0.10 € 0.37 € 0.44 € GDP Imports IN @ COVID-19 SYNTH SIS One less (or additional) euro of exports generates a decreases (or an increase) of 44 cents of imports and 56 cents of GDP. Symmetric Input-Output Matrices, 2017 According to the baseline hypotheses and results of the Symmetric Input-Output Matrices for the Portuguese economy regarding 2017, each additional euro of expenditure variation on the main four aggregates of final demand aggregates generates the following impacts in the same direction as imports and GDP as follows: Final Consumption Expenditure of Households: 24 cents of imports and 76 cents of GDP; Final Consumption Expenditure of General Government: 10 cents of imports and 90 cents of GDP; Gross Fixed Capital Formation: 37 cents of imports and 63 cents of GDP; Exports: 44 cents of imports and 56 cents of GDP. Variation in GDP and Imports, for each euro of variation in expenditure Final Consumption Expenditure of Households Final Consumption Expenditure of General Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports A 25% decrease in touristic activity will lead to a 2.9% contraction in GDP The COVID-19 pandemic will have significant and wide impacts in the Portuguese economy. Tourism, which represented 11.3% of GDP in 2018 according to the Tourism Satellite Account, will be one of the most affected sectors by this crisis, and a significant decrease in activity is expected . Applying the matrix system, a 25% decrease in tourist activity, both from non-residents and internal tourism, would lead to a 2.9% decrease in annual GDP in Portugal.