Summary
Accordingly with the flash estimates compiled by the EUROSTAT, the Euro Area (EA) and the European Union (EU27) GDP registered year-on-year change rates of -2.1% and -2.3% in the 4th quarter of 2009 (-4.0% and
-4.3% in the 3rd quarter, respectively). In January, the economic sentiment and the consumer confidence indicators maintained the upward movement observed in the last months in the EA and in the EU27. In the same month, the raw materials and the consumer prices accelerated in the EA.
In Portugal, accordingly with the flash estimate, the GDP recorded a year-on-year change rate of -0.8% in the 4th quarter, less negative than the observed in the 3rd quarter (-2.5%), reflecting the positive contribution of the net external demand and the less negative contribution of the domestic demand. The economic activity indicator maintained in the 4th quarter the positive path started in the previous quarter. The private consumption indicator increased in the 4th quarter of 2009, due to the less negative contribution of the durable consumption and to the acceleration of the non-durable consumption. On the contrary, in the same quarter, the GFCF indicator slightly intensified its negative change rate. Concerning the international trade of goods, in the 4th quarter of 2009 imports and exports recorded less negative year-on-year nominal change rates than in the previous quarters (from -17.9% to -7.1% in the first case and from -17.1% to -3.6% in the second, from the 3rd to the 4th quarter, respectively). Meanwhile, the economic climate indicator recovered in the last tree quarters, although less intensely in the 4th quarter, inverting the previous movement, decreasing again in January.
In the 4th quarter of 2009, the unemployment rate was 10.1%, 2.3 p.p. more than in the same quarter of 2008, attaining a new maximum for the series started in 1998. Employment shifted from a -3.4% year-on-year change rate in the 3rd quarter of 2009 (the lowest rate of the series started in 1999) to -3.0% in the 4th.
In January, the year-on-year change rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 0.1%, 0.2 p.p. higher than in the previous month, attaining the first positive change rate since February 2009. In January, the CPI evolution reflected the less negative year-on-year change rate of the prices of goods, while the prices of services decelerated. The differential between the EA Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the Portuguese HICP diminished 0.1 p.p. in January relatively to the previous month, to 0.9 p.p..